I have touched on this subject only once or twice before as I have an inner battle which rages between keeping this blog only as a means of relating my experience as it related to cooking. I have been thinking about this post for quite sometime and am thrilled that I finally have the time to write it.
Thomas Robert Malthus was a brilliant scholar (British) who produced incredible works on population and political economy. He spent a massive amount of time dedicated to understanding the problem he recognized probably two centuries before it was to become a massively important issue. His seminal work is called “The Principle of Population.”
In Principle he presents two very important theories which can be summarized as;
1) Population grows at an exponential rate while food production grows only arithmetically. (This has been untrue in the modern world because of advances in science and technology but ultimately will prove true in the coming decades.) Any shift in that balance between the two will illustrate that the power of the first is MUCH greater than the second.
2) In all societies there is a drive for population increase. This causes (my words not his) a class struggle which subjugates the lower classes and will never allow for a correction in standard of living for those lower classes.
He quite correctly in my opinion suggests that; “The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.”
I have long suggested that Malthusian theory was now obsolete as we had surpassed the ability of the earth through technology and science to produce food exponentially in relation to population growth. As I have worked in the food industry I have read countless volumes (which by their very existence) suggest that this is untenable. That eventually technology will no longer be able to keep pace with the population explosion and that such being true will lead to the inevitability of class struggle, food shortage, famine and ultimately the death of tens of millions if not hundreds of millions of people. Moreover that our current policies do nothing to address the core problems.
Since the end of World War Two we have lived in a time of great peace and prosperity. Naturally there has been armed conflict but it has been limited to specific region and hot zones and has not become a global conflict. War, Malthus argued, was a positive influence on keeping population in check. Along with famine and people getting married later which lowers populations advance as the window for child rearing lessens. (again this is proving untrue as fertility drugs and treatments have shown us that grandmothers can have children… DANGER DANGER WILL ROBINSON). Populations’ necessity to stay in check as an important precursor to sustainability is being largely dismissed until very recently.
Now the question must be answered. How have we been able to stave off Malthusian theory from being correct until now? Well as alluded to above, since World War Two we have seen a great leap forward. In terms of population at the end of the war the earth stood at approximately 2 billion. Depending on the source the total war dead was anywhere from 55 million to 70 million which represented a decrease in world population of approximately 2.7 to 3%. However since the end of World War Two the population has exploded to approximately 7,000,000,000 today. A 300% increase.
We have been able to stave off Malthusian Theory through the ever increasing use of genetically modified food since 1990. I have written a much shorter post on this in the past. Genetically Modified Food or GM Food is food stuffs which have had their DNA changed by scientists through genetic engineering. This is troubling for two reasons; one is profit. There is a huge amount of profit to be made from the control of genetic engineering of food and the corporations that control the supply chain related to GM seeds will do anything to protect their value. Secondly it is alarming because as I touched on in the previous post I wrote on the subject, natural selection has fallen prey to GM Foods and has seen an extremely diverse food supply become increasingly homogenized. This homogenization has been largely left unstudied in terms of its impact on the food supply and the possibility of various forms of pests evolving to best our scientific achievement. These are very serious issues.
One such case I used was the case of the tomato Florida 47. There is a similar tomato which comes from California which is escaping my mind right now. However, these two tomatoes account for a ridiculous amount of the market in North America, somewhere in the neighborhood of 80%. 80% from two varietals that have been selectively modified and engineered not to deliver the most nutrients as the original fruit did but instead so that they are uniform, able to travel long distances, be red, plump and juicy. How do they achieve this? Through the modification of certain DNA parts of the plant which results in a lower amount of water, vitamins and nutrients and a devastating increase in the amount of SODIUM among other things. When you go to a supermarket to buy your tomatoes next time, look at them, feel them, smell them. I am sure that you will notice that smell is largely gone, they do not feel as tomatoes should and are instead as hard as tennis balls and they are all big and red. Then ask yourself; is this what a tomato is supposed to look like?
The same is happening all over the industrialized world. This is being done without much alarm, so that Food Production can keep up with Population explosion. EXACTLY WHAT MALTHUS WARNED ABOUT 200 YEARS AGO!
It is not restricted to Tomatoes either. Some of the most common food stuffs we eat are now genetically modified, including; Soybeans, Rice, Sugar Cane, Papaya, Cotton, Corn, Potatoes and Rapeseed. IN NO WAY IS THIS LIST EXHAUSTIVE MERELY ILLUSTRATIVE. Moreover is the current trend of farmers to switch to corn production as a means of producing ethanol. Foolish!
So what you say? Why does this matter? Well the problem with GM foods is that they are largely grown in areas that the environment is not meant to support them. As such it is necessary to transport massive amounts of water (another alarming and important issue which I will touch on after) and massive inputs must go in to the soil in order to sustain farms. I will elaborate presently.
GM Foods are expanding their reach at an alarming rate. Its influence on our daily meals has expanded by as much as 50 times (50 x) in a ten year period. And don’t think for a minute that this is happening in someone else’s backyard. It is our problem too. Canada for instance as of the latest statistics produces about 94% of its crops by time proven conventional methods. But that means that 6% is grown using GM seeds and methods.
In order to use GM seeds you must of course purchase the seeds from any one of a few massive multinationals that operate outside of the bounds of law. Though recognized as legal entities they largely operate with impunity. Such companies include; Monsanto and Bayer Cropscience just to name a couple. There are many, many companies which have at their core GM or GE (genetically engineered foods).
These companies, as mentioned above, largely operate outside of the law. While there have been numerous rulings and conventions with regard to GM or GE foods most of them favour the large multinationals and thus represent and clear and present danger to the food supply.
The practices of these companies is predatory and can be witnessed by Monsanto’s purchase of Delta & Pine Land company largely to gain access to what the company called its “Terminator Seed.” The purpose of which was to produce a plant which is seedless so that the cycle of production is entirely dependant on those select companies which own the seed. As if this were not predatory enough, in order to grow GM crops in places that were never meant to grow those crops, it is necessary to put massive amounts of fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides which poison the soil and erode the soils ability to grow anything let alone GM crops.
For years, millennia in fact, it has been known as standard farming practice, that you had to rotate the crops, in order to maintain the quality of the soil. Those days no longer exist as massive industrial farms have taken over from the independent family farms. Which incidentally are suffering because of the inputs that they must buy in order to grow the crops which do not as promised, have greater yield or are less prone to disease. This millennia long practice going to the wayside has seen massive industrial farms set up in places such as Africa or South America in order to keep up with the ever increasing food demands.
Another (often not discussed) impact of our ever increasing use of GM or GE foods is that the inputs which are being used to grow these crops are now having a negative impact on water, causing both shortages and a poising of our water table as the fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides due to the increased amount of water to grow the crops eventually leaches into our water system. What is the impact of that decision for our species in 50 years?
Evolution has enabled us over long periods of time to deal with certain changes to climate, etc. One thing I am not certain that evolution can or will be able to do is to deal with increased toxins in our food while nutrients are being selectively and purposefully for profit removed from our food supply.
Make no mistake about it. I am not Chicken Little. BUT THE SKY IS FALLING! Malthusian theory through human ingenuity has been sidelined up until now. However, I believe, strongly, that the next fifty years are going to see massive food shortages which result from inadequate and ill informed food policy today. That these shortages are going to lead to a break down of those things that we consider civilization forming. And that the erosion of those forces of civilization are going to lead to untold strife. And yet countries pour billions into machines of death… does that make sense?
Our food supply chain in the oceans and rivers of the world is also unsustainable. As a result we are seeing large fish farms created with little to no study on the environmental and species impact. Extremely dangerous. As a species we are so greedy that we are eating ourselves to death, in fact to extinction and yet when is the last time you heard a World Leader, Obama, Harper, Sarkozy or anyone for that matter utter a single sentence on the coming shortage and crisis. There is a lack of true leadership at the levels that there has to be in order for our children to eat. This is not an issue which can be avoided. It is going to become reality. Sure we may be able to stave it off for a while but AT WHAT COST!
In the industrialized countries we have manufactured scarcity in order to inflate prices and thus stabilize profit centres. In Canada alone we destroy enough grain to feed the worlds hungry every year merely to protect profitability. Sure the powers that be will tell you that it is not fit for human consumption but do you really think that is the case? The same is true of other industrialized powers, the United States as well as the European Union. We also rely heavily on the World Bank and the IMF to create policies and funds which will help the problem. Unfortunately history proves that they are not concerned with the problem. Look at the conditions of loans in developing and under developed countries. The conditions create a consistent debtor country which has no means to get out of debt. When are we going to stop focusing on profit and start focusing on our species survival? A short reading of the history of Africa and Latin America bears witness to the previous statement.
Population has risen largely unchecked since the end of World War Two. The emergence of China and India as powerhouses in the next twenty years (best case scenario, worse is in the next five to seven) is going to strain the ability of the earth to produce even the most basic food stuffs for survival. Ultimately, I believe the answer we are going to be provided is a pill of some kind. My question is this; Where is the leadership on this issue? Where are the people raising the alarms about our imminent demise (in earth’s timeline sense)? Where are the people in power protecting us?
So where does this leave us. What can we do? First is buy local from local farmers. There is no shortage of Farmers Markets all over the industrialized world. In Ontario we have access to a seemingly endless supply of fresh foods, vegetables and fruits, game, etc. Buy local. Support your farmers.
Of course there is a big move to organic foods right now. But again I caution that organic foods have taken on the same life as GM or GE foods but in the opposite. Organic is largely unregulated and has a smattering of regulations from various bodies but nothing that is consistent or global let alone national in nature. This is not an attack on organic as I believe that it is a great movement. It is merely an acknowledgement that anything left largely unregulated ends up becoming less than the original idea and can be destructive.
We need to move away from industrial farms which are poisoning us. We need to demand, TRULY DEMAND action from our leaders today. For if the world continues on the same trend as the past sixty years we are headed to a world of 15 Billion people soon with little to no plan to feed that population or provide it with clean drinking water. Our current system is pushing us ever closer to the brink of destruction and NOONE IS PAYING ATTENTION.
Malthus was and is right. He was just off by a few years. There are countless articles, scholarly and opinionated on the matters discussed in this post. Find them. Figure out what you can do to make yourself healthier and in turn providing support, much needed, for the survival of our children. We can make a difference one person at a time. But we need to act now.
Adam Smith (you should also read Wealth of Nations) once wrote; “Such is the delicacy of man alone, that no object is produced to his liking. He finds that in everything there is need for improvement.... The whole industry of human life is employed not in procuring the supply of our three humble necessities, food, clothes and lodging, but in procuring the conveniences of it according to the nicety and delicacy of our tastes.”
Norman Borlaug once said; “Civilization as it is known today could not have evolved, nor can it survive, without an adequate food supply.”
Jeffrey Sachs in Scientific American wrote; “The recent surge in world food prices is already creating havoc in poor countries, and worse is to come. Food riots are spreading across Africa, though many are unreported in the international press. Moreover, the surge in wheat, maize and rice prices seen on commodities markets have not yet fully percolated into the shops and stalls of the poor countries or the budgets of relief organizations. Nor has the budget crunch facing relief organizations such as the World Food Program, which must buy food in world markets, been fully felt. The results could be calamitous unless offsetting policy actions are taken rapidly.
The facts are stark. A metric ton of wheat cost around $375 on the commodity exchanges in early 2006. In March 2008, it stood at over $900. Maize has gone from around $250 to $560 in the same period. Rice prices have also soared. The physical inventories of grain relative to demand are also down sharply in recent years.”
Oxfam has also started publicly crying out about the shortages that are coming;
"World leaders have a window of opportunity to prevent a worse situation resulting from the triple crunch of the economic crisis, climate change, and energy and water scarcity," Oxfam agricultural policy expert Carlos Galian said in a statement.
"Failure to act will see millions more people falling into hunger," he added.”
I am hopeful that something will be done in the coming months and years which can stave off our own destruction. We all have a part to play. Are you going to play yours?
Einstein was right when he said; “Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow.”
Are you dreaming big and inspired?
A la prochaine
SDM
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